Tuesday, May 01, 2007

did you guys see this ICM article?

it is on P5s by Jennifear, it is a pretty good article, although she tries to just simplify ICM to much. overall worth a read... I'm going to copy a piece of it here, although i suggest you read the whole article here.


the red text is directly copied and pasted:

The stacks are:

Chipleader - 7000 (cutoff)
Hero - 5000 (button)
Third - 2500 (big blind)
Fourth - 500 (small blind)

Blinds are 50-100.

The chipleader has been pushing all-in nearly every hand since the action became four-handed fifteen hands ago. The action is on the chipleader, who pushes all-in once again, and we expect that his total range is any two cards.

Let's determine what we, as the Hero, can call with:

Before the hand, here is how the equity is split up:

Player Chips Equity
Hero 5000 $65.63
Chipleader 7000 $73.95
Big Blind 2500 $49.16
Small Blind 500 $11.25

If we call the push and lose, our equity is $0.00 because we finish fourth, so we lose all of our $65.63 in equity! (also take note that in this scenario, the shortstack has nearly quadrupled his equity without moving a chip):

Player Chips Equity
Chipleader 12150 $92.19
Hero 0 $0.00
Big Blind 2400 $63.34
Small Blind 450 $44.47

If we call and win, we take a nice lead, but our equity only moves up $19.87 in the right direction:

Player Chips Equity
Hero 10150 $85.46
Former CL 2000 $48.58
Big Blind 2400 $52.66
Small Blind 450 $13.30

So in this case, we risk $65.63 to potentially win $19.87. Given this info, we must call with cards that will win 76.74% (3.3/4.3) of the time to make this call +$EV.

The mistake people make a lot of the time in this spot is calling with hands that will usually win them chips (cEV), such as AJ, 99, etc. It is +cEV to call with hands as bad as K10 in this spot, meaning that we will, on average, win chips calling with K10. However, it is only profitable in this instance to call with AA and KK. Your risk is too large to call with QQ, as it does worse than the 76.74% required against any two cards. Please note that if you could narrow the pusher's range to any ace or any pair, KK would be a clear fold in this instance. This is one of many situations in bubble play where a play that wins you chips more often than not can be a very unprofitable play (+cEV but -$EV).








here is a link to a thread about this article, with some discussion.

4 comments:

Biby Cletus said...

Nice post, its a really cool blog that you have here, keep up the good work, will be back.

Warm Regards

Biby Cletus - Blog

AnguilA said...

Hi there,

I final tabled a live tourney this weekend and had the following situation arise:

4 players left.
Payouts: 4100-2100-1450-1150

Blinds.
1.5K-3K antes 300

Stacks.
Total: 102K
Chip leader: 53K
Tight Guy: 19K
Me: 19K
Short Stack: 11K

Chip leader has pushed just about anything: his range has to be ATC.
He pushes from the button and I have A8o in the BB.

Should I call or fold?

Thanks in advance!

sprstoner said...

AnguilA, it looks like to me, that you have to call in that spot. esp if he has a big range. its brutal to go out before the short stack, but you cant just sit and wait.

AnguilA said...

Thanks for your answer! I did call, especially because I thought that I had to play for 1st prize...
Turns out I was up against KQo and he managed to spike a queen. GG me!