did you guys see this ICM article?

it is on P5s by Jennifear, it is a pretty good article, although she tries to just simplify ICM to much. overall worth a read... I'm going to copy a piece of it here, although i suggest you read the whole article here.


the red text is directly copied and pasted:

The stacks are:

Chipleader - 7000 (cutoff)
Hero - 5000 (button)
Third - 2500 (big blind)
Fourth - 500 (small blind)

Blinds are 50-100.

The chipleader has been pushing all-in nearly every hand since the action became four-handed fifteen hands ago. The action is on the chipleader, who pushes all-in once again, and we expect that his total range is any two cards.

Let's determine what we, as the Hero, can call with:

Before the hand, here is how the equity is split up:

Player Chips Equity
Hero 5000 $65.63
Chipleader 7000 $73.95
Big Blind 2500 $49.16
Small Blind 500 $11.25

If we call the push and lose, our equity is $0.00 because we finish fourth, so we lose all of our $65.63 in equity! (also take note that in this scenario, the shortstack has nearly quadrupled his equity without moving a chip):

Player Chips Equity
Chipleader 12150 $92.19
Hero 0 $0.00
Big Blind 2400 $63.34
Small Blind 450 $44.47

If we call and win, we take a nice lead, but our equity only moves up $19.87 in the right direction:

Player Chips Equity
Hero 10150 $85.46
Former CL 2000 $48.58
Big Blind 2400 $52.66
Small Blind 450 $13.30

So in this case, we risk $65.63 to potentially win $19.87. Given this info, we must call with cards that will win 76.74% (3.3/4.3) of the time to make this call +$EV.

The mistake people make a lot of the time in this spot is calling with hands that will usually win them chips (cEV), such as AJ, 99, etc. It is +cEV to call with hands as bad as K10 in this spot, meaning that we will, on average, win chips calling with K10. However, it is only profitable in this instance to call with AA and KK. Your risk is too large to call with QQ, as it does worse than the 76.74% required against any two cards. Please note that if you could narrow the pusher's range to any ace or any pair, KK would be a clear fold in this instance. This is one of many situations in bubble play where a play that wins you chips more often than not can be a very unprofitable play (+cEV but -$EV).








here is a link to a thread about this article, with some discussion.