Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Bad fold????

i thought i was making a bad fold as i made it... so i decided to double check using sngwiz. and sure enough i believe i was right.

Click here to view a larger version.

i am not sure why gigabet or emptyseat88 (Scott Fischman) folded, must of had very shitty hands too. anyways, they were nice enough to give me a little +ev, and i passed on it as well.

as you see, as long as he is calling 51.6% or less this will be a profitable push... well he can call a little more, the break even point is about 64%.
a lot of people do call pretty wide here, but this guy was tight, and i really don't think he calls more than 51%. so it all depends. but as long as he doesn't call more than 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J4o+,J2s+,T6o+,T3s+,97o+,95s+,86s+ (64%) it is break even or +ev.

if i put the BB's calling range at 51% and mine at 10% emptyseat88 should push: 22+,A2+,K6o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q7s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s (36.0%)

so what do you think.... good fold or bad? i honestly think i missed a little +ev there.


Matt Brett said...

Jesus Christ, What a retard post. Keep this shit to yourself dude

lucko said...

JAM! Especially with your read of the BB being tight.

Anonymous said...

I think it's a +ev push. Even if you get called and lose you still have chips to work with. There will also be times your called and win. Taking that along with the percent of time he folds makes it a push. Just my thoughts.